Forecast scoreboard
Updated Latest data: September 2026 · ONS release 21 October 2026 · Data fetched 28 October 2026, 10:12 GMT
Live predictions
No live predictions have been locked yet. Each one will appear here when it is locked before an ONS release, and will be scored once the actual figure is out. The current draft forecast is not included until it is locked.
Backtest (October 2024 to September 2026)
Backtest, not live predictions. These figures come from rerunning the models after the fact, using only data published before each release. They show how the method would have performed. They are not a record of forecasts made in advance.
| Month | Actual | v2 | v2 error | v1 | v1 error | Naive | Naive error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0pp | 3.4% | -0.1pp | 3.1% | -0.4pp |
| August 2026 | 3.1% | 3.2% | +0.1pp | 3.0% | -0.1pp | 2.9% | -0.2pp |
| July 2026 | 2.9% | 2.4% | -0.5pp | 2.3% | -0.6pp | 2.6% | -0.3pp |
| June 2026 | 2.6% | 2.5% | -0.1pp | 2.6% | 0.0pp | 2.8% | +0.2pp |
| May 2026 | 2.8% | 3.0% | +0.2pp | 3.0% | +0.2pp | 2.8% | 0.0pp |
| April 2026 | 2.8% | 3.0% | +0.2pp | 2.7% | -0.1pp | 3.3% | +0.5pp |
| March 2026 | 3.3% | 3.1% | -0.2pp | 3.0% | -0.3pp | 3.0% | -0.3pp |
| February 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0pp | 3.0% | 0.0pp | 3.0% | 0.0pp |
| January 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0pp | 3.0% | 0.0pp | 3.4% | +0.4pp |
| December 2025 | 3.4% | 3.2% | -0.2pp | 3.2% | -0.2pp | 3.2% | -0.2pp |
| November 2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | +0.4pp | 3.6% | +0.4pp | 3.6% | +0.4pp |
| October 2025 | 3.6% | 3.4% | -0.2pp | 3.3% | -0.3pp | 3.8% | +0.2pp |
| September 2025 | 3.8% | 4.1% | +0.3pp | 4.1% | +0.3pp | 3.8% | 0.0pp |
| August 2025 | 3.8% | 4.0% | +0.2pp | 3.9% | +0.1pp | 3.8% | 0.0pp |
| July 2025 | 3.8% | 3.4% | -0.4pp | 3.6% | -0.2pp | 3.6% | -0.2pp |
| June 2025 | 3.6% | 3.3% | -0.3pp | 3.3% | -0.3pp | 3.4% | -0.2pp |
| May 2025 | 3.4% | 3.5% | +0.1pp | 3.6% | +0.2pp | 3.5% | +0.1pp |
| April 2025 | 3.5% | 3.0% | -0.5pp | 2.9% | -0.6pp | 2.6% | -0.9pp |
| March 2025 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0pp | 2.6% | 0.0pp | 2.8% | +0.2pp |
| February 2025 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0pp | 2.8% | 0.0pp | 3.0% | +0.2pp |
| January 2025 | 3.0% | 2.7% | -0.3pp | 2.6% | -0.4pp | 2.5% | -0.5pp |
| December 2024 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0pp | 2.5% | 0.0pp | 2.6% | +0.1pp |
| November 2024 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0pp | 2.6% | 0.0pp | 2.3% | -0.3pp |
| October 2024 | 2.3% | 2.0% | -0.3pp | 1.8% | -0.5pp | 1.7% | -0.6pp |
Error = predicted minus actual, in percentage points. Errors of more than 0.25pp either way are highlighted for all three models; exact hits are in bold.
| Model | MAE | Bias | Within 0.2pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naive (rate unchanged from last month) | 0.27pp | -0.07pp | 14/24 |
| v1 seasonal baseline | 0.20pp | -0.10pp | 15/24 |
| v2 seasonal + energy, fuel, food | 0.19pp | -0.06pp | 16/24 |
Backtest generated 28 October 2026, 10:15 GMT. Method note: current-vintage data truncated at T-1; CPI rarely revised.